Unless you firmly identify as Gen Z, you probably have pretty vivid memories of life a decade and a half ago in 2005. In the grand scheme of human history which goes back a couple of hundred thousand years, 15 years is a rounding error. Yet, had this outbreak happened in ’05, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on health, livelihoods, and the trajectory of the human population and post-pandemic lifestyle would’ve been drastically different. Below is a fun thought exercise that will conjecture that the human race is better off in almost every aspect of life as result of the outbreak occurring in 2020 as opposed to 2005:
Physical health and healthcare
Currently, the official death toll from COVID-19 is over 5 million with a case count north of 260 million globally. And that’s in all likelihood a significant underestimate especially if the second-degree impacts of COVID-19 patients straining healthcare resources are included (e.g. turned away patients with non-COVID health issues that eventually became fatal, complications in recovery due to early discharge from overwhelmed hospitals, lack of available nurses for homecare, etc.). For instance, an excess-death model pegged the toll at closer to 15–20 million.
The same COVID outbreak occurring in 2005 would’ve increased these numbers significantly. For one, telemedicine was really hard to come by just 15 years ago (Teladoc was just launching; ZocDoc and One Medical were still 2 years away). Broadband internet connections that are taken for granted were actually not at all reliable in 2005, which would’ve been a devastating hurdle for any hopes of telemedicine quickly scaling up to combat doctor offices overwhelmed with COVID surges.
Moreover, lockdowns would not have been sustainable beyond a short period of time, given the vast economic damage that would’ve resulted from less efficient remote work options especially for those with desk jobs. Most likely, the spread of COVID-05 would’ve been much quicker given our dependence on live interactions at our workplaces and the inadequacy of online options to fulfill all our essential household needs.
Finally, another key difference regarding healthcare now versus 2005 is related to the production of mRNA vaccines. Amazingly, the time to market of the now-popular Pfizer and Moderna vaccines was just under a year, thanks in large part to prior research and use of the mRNA vaccine technology in the 2010s. Research on this technology had accelerated after the SARS outbreak in 2003, and the same mRNA technology had been used in the 2010s to develop experimental vaccines for diseases like Ebola and Zika. They were in fact used on military personnel in the early 2010s. Had COVID arrived in 2005, none of this research and operational know-how would’ve been readily available, likely prolonging the timeline of designing and mass producing the vaccine significantly (perhaps 5 years or more if using historical precedent). Ultimately, the length of the pandemic would have been much longer.
Verdict: COVID occurring in 2020 rather than 2005 likely meant a much lower death toll from health issues both directly and indirectly related to COVID. There would also be a lower number of long COVID sufferers as a result of the shorter expected timeline to vaccine approval and production.
Mental health
One of the more underrated aspects of COVID-19 has been the impact on mental health. Reports of mental health issues for adults and minors alike have skyrocketed over the past 12–18 months. As inherently social beings, humans probably have been very challenged in coping with increased isolation in the name of slowing the virus spread.
Had COVID surfaced 15 years ago, the mental strain would’ve been at least as severe. On the one hand, setting aside remote work for a moment, the general ability to maintain social distancing measures would have been much more difficult and would’ve necessitated a quicker return to more traditional face-to-face socializing and brick-and-mortar style shopping. Video calls and social media that are available now were still in their nascent stages back in 2005. The few home delivery services that existed in ’05 — including Amazon pre-Cloud computing — would’ve simply crashed amid the sudden surge in demand. Access to everything from food supply to private transportation to entertainment options would’ve been more limited back then (Amazon Fresh, Doordash, Instacart, Nextdoor, Freshly, Boxed, Uber, Twitter, and even Netflix streaming did not yet exist).
On the other hand, having to resume social interactions sooner and carry out most life responsibilities in person rather than virtually might’ve created much more stress for many people, especially high risk individuals. For instance, without FaceTime, many might have decided to take more risks in order to visit loved ones, but would’ve felt much higher levels of anxiety about traveling versus chatting from living rooms, all else equal. On top of this, the presumably longer timeline to a vaccine would either immobilize or increase health risks for the elderly and immunocompromised populations for much longer. The longer stretch of isolation and anxiety about the virus, as well as the higher likelihood of loved ones passing, would’ve been an enormous mental challenge.
Finally, another underrated factor since 2020 has been the increased use of social media for purposes other than to stay connected. Time spent on social media apps has been higher than expected as a result of the pandemic, which studies have shown could be detrimental to mental well-being. Setting aside the more rapid spread of helpful intel and misinformation alike, in times of increased danger and ever-present death, bigger negative mental responses can result from posts on either extreme. On one end, sad news about loved ones can trigger worry and anxiety. On the other, posts that seek to create perfect images of life can be interpreted as tone deaf and unattainable given the precarious state the world is in. From this angle, COVID occurring in 2020 might have led to worse mental health among heavy users of social media.
Verdict: The slight edge goes to COVID-19 as being less mentally straining given the shorter expected timeline to a vaccine as well as the increased ability to stay connected due to advancement in consumer technology. However, the mental challenges of the pandemic would’ve been intense regardless of the timing difference.
Workplace culture
It’s easy to forget that smartphones, HD video conferencing, reliable wireless networks, and cloud computing were not yet ubiquitous in 2005. Internet speeds were much slower, and online communication tools were very primitive. About as many adult Americans were still using dial-up internet as those who gained access to broadband internet (each roughly 33%). Furthermore, you could only get internet speeds up to about 10 megabits per second in ’05, as compared to anywhere from 500 megabits to 1 gigabits per second nowadays. Most Blackberry phones in use were still colorless, Skype had no video option, Facebook didn’t have News Feed yet, the first iPhone was 2 years away, and WhatsApp was still 4 years away.
Needless to say, the remote work experience would’ve been drastically worse. Simultaneously downloading an mp3 file (what’s that?) and reading an email attachment might’ve been too much to handle for the majority of households.
As for non-office workers, home delivery and gig economy businesses are far and few in between in 2005 as noted above (TaskRabbit and Instacart were still 3 and 7 years away, respectively). Most retailers by that point still had not yet created an online catalogue that rivaled the brick-and-mortar experience (Amazon Prime and Shopify were just about to launch). As such, the employment boost that we saw for non-office workers especially in B2C businesses probably would not have happened to the same degree 15 years ago.
All in all, this would’ve likely meant more urgency to rush people back to the offices/roads/stores sooner. The economic fallout might’ve simply been too much to bear even when weighed against the terrible health risks. Many more workers would have been returning to the workplace well before vaccine approval given the inefficiencies of remote work.
As for plans for post-pandemic workplace policies, the ‘luxury’ of implementing permanent flexible work arrangements would have been impossible back in 2005 outside of the most technology-centric firms (as evidenced by firms like Dropbox, Facebook, LogMeIn, Shopify, Slack, and Twitter being first movers in instituting the most flexible hybrid or full remote work arrangements since the pandemic started). Instead of debating whether we should be in the office 2 or 3 days a week to better balance productivity, creativity, collaboration, and overall employee happiness, employers would likely be discussing a return to 5-day workweeks in the office.
More broadly, whether or not you’re a caregiver, the whole notion of work/life balance and flexibility to break up the workday to toggle work and personal matters whenever needed would not have gotten off the ground back in ’05. Relatedly, progressive thought exercises like the blurring of traditional gender roles would not have gone mainstream. Lastly, the stigma that working from home means being distracted and less productive even in normal times would probably linger indefinitely.
Verdict: COVID-19 as opposed to COVID-05 vastly benefits the future of workplace policies. If you’re in the camp that thinks 9–5 workdays are obsolete and overdue for change, the likely changes to work/life balance are a huge silver lining of COVID surfacing at the time that it did. As for non-office workers, spillover effects of new policies and the flexibility created by the gig economy should be net positives for work/life balance for many.
Education
If anyone thought remote learning has been a pain in the butt, imagine not having the option, especially as a high risk individual. From a technology standpoint, EdTech has evolved tremendously over the past decade along with more reliable broadband connections and the emergence of cloud computing, which was vital to not only telemedicine and remote work but online education as well. Cloud computing allowed platforms like Zoom, Skype, and WhatsApp to take off quickly, which schools relied on heavily for remote learning. While people have argued that virtual learning options limit interactions and content retention in ways that could hurt a child’s emotional well-being, the need to utilize online educational tools have inspired other activities outside of a traditional classroom to compensate (e.g. learning pods).
Without remote learning, students would either have been forced to attend classes in shifts or go on intermittent breaks as COVID waves came and went for much longer. Either option would probably have been more disruptive than the current hybrid learning experience.
Verdict: Advances in EdTech over the past decade appear to have benefited learning during the COVID-19 pandemic and kept many students from falling further behind in school than they otherwise would have. In the longer run, the motivation to completely rethink in-person and virtual schooling (e.g. going through the process of tailoring and optimizing educational content for the virtual environment) will eventually increase the net positives for students.
Romance
If COVID had happened 15 years ago, the inability to swipe right and left presumably would have slowed down the dating market quite a bit (Grindr, Tinder, Bumble, and Facebook Dating were still 4, 7, 10, and 14 years away, respectively). The greater reliance on nightclubs, bars, and various indoor events would’ve meant a tougher time meeting people and developing relationships.
Aside from fewer and slower-developing relationships, tying the knot would’ve also taken longer. Milestone festivities would’ve been harder to plan, and virtual weddings would have been impossible. The net result would have been either rushed romance (e.g. cohabiting earlier in a relationship) or a delayed timeline (e.g. wedding postponements). At worst, a 2005 pandemic might have knocked us back to a time when people picked among a few candidates within their neighborhoods and group of longtime friends to be spouses.
As for existing families, the stress of COVID-19 seemingly has put a greater number of marriages on the rocks. Some experts estimated more acts of adultery have been committed since COVID, and they have had bigger negative consequences due to the intersection with the social, emotional, and financial consequences of COVID-19. It’s unclear how a pandemic happening 15 years earlier would’ve changed people’s motivation to seek affairs. On the one hand, a quicker return to normal activities could have led to fewer marital problems being exposed and left to fester. On the other hand, more intermittent lockdowns due to a longer vaccine timeline could’ve exacerbated existing relationship problems. In any case, it’s reasonable to suspect that instances of adultery would’ve increased regardless of COVID’s timing. However, the success rates of adulterers would likely be lower these days relative to 2005: there are simply fewer excuses to be away from home. Cheaters beware!
Verdict: Ambiguous, especially for married couples. As for single folks, the pandemic occurring in 2020 as opposed to 2005 was likely less disruptive to relationships.
